The Only Poll That Matters

Election Day is the only poll that matters. On November 5, our national election was conducted with a vanishingly small margin of error under the auspices of our fifty states and various territories. It resulted in a resounding victory for Donald Trump in both the Electoral College and, depending on the final tally from California, the popular vote.

The Trump Campaign had a legion of lawyers ready to dispute election results at each and every. for them, discomforting turn — many of the lawyers poised for action in Pennsylvania. In the early evening hours of Election Day, Trump posted to all his followers: “A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!” Philadelphia County actually gave him three percentage points more of its vote than it did in 2020. The Trump Campaign, perhaps to its own surprise, caught the bus. It didn’t need all those lawyers after all.

There is what I regard as will-o’-the-wisp thinking that, this time around, Trump, now that he knows better the executive-branch ropes, will govern more effectively and more seriously. After all, he has his historical legacy to consider. Maybe this will be so. But, to borrow once again Ralph Waldo Emerson’s phrase, no man can violate his nature.

To those who fully embrace Trump’s “Make America Great Again” brand, I would say that you, intentionally or unintentionally, are in dissonance with a truer and better opportunity vision of America. The vision expressed as a great “City on a Hill,” derived from the salt and light portion of the Sermon on the Mount and applied to what would grow into portion of the New World three centuries ago by the first governor of Massachusetts, John Winthrop — a vision and narrative continued fitfully and perhaps unknowingly by all generations ever since. America’s greatness has never yet faltered into the past tense. Donald Trump’s marketing genius notwithstanding, may it never do so.

To explain the dissonance bluntly:

You sought to entrust the Presidency again to a man who either cannot, or chooses not to, distinguish self-interest from objective truth and right conduct.

You sought to restore to the Presidency a man convicted in a jury trial of a felony offense in the state of New York.

Say what the Supreme Court might about the degree of immunity that should be accorded to a President, Special Counsel Jack Smith assembled a good case that between Election Day 2020 and January 6, 2021, President Trump committed criminal, even treasonous, acts against the peaceful transfer of presidential power.

Smith also assembled a good case that Trump stole, and then lied about stealing, highly sensitive government documents that, even as a former President, he had no right to continue to possess.

There is nothing in that which works to keep America’s character great.

President Biden

Of course, I realize that many, maybe most, people who on November 5 voted for Trump did so not so much because they are enamored with him and MAGA but because they could not get over a critical mass of dissatisfaction with, or mistrust for, the Democratic Party.

In 2020 Joe Biden had one main mission — to put Donald Trump and his attendant chaos into ever receding perspective in the nation’s rearview mirror. In his inaugural address, President Biden invited us to “Take a measure of me and my heart.” He pledged to be a President for all Americans and “to fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.”

The very much implied story in all this was that Biden had come out of honorable retirement not to restoke the fires of personal ambition but, using wisdom acquired over fifty years of public service, to provide a respite for the nation to recover its senses after the pandemic and to be a bridge to a new generation of national leaders.

Instead, in a twist worthy of the treatment of a Shakespeare or Tolkien, the ring of presidential power proved too much for him. He listened to presidential whisperers who told him that he could be the next FDR — but better than FDR because he would do it without large supportive majorities in Congress. The Bi-Partisan Infrastructure Act was indeed a supreme legislative achievement — a credit to both any President and to any Congress.

So was the Inflation Reduction Act. But that act is also emblematic of the bait-and-switch. The Inflation Reduction Act was not about reducing inflation. It is mostly about implementing profound public investment into the development of green energy to lessen the effects of climate change. There is nothing wrong about lessening climate change. It is legacy-affirming achievement that future generations should think of with gratitude. But in the here-and-now, many people, especially those who don’t have the time or resources to follow current events in detail, may not like being misdirected into thinking important legislation is about something fundamentally different than it is labeled — especially when, despite the advertisement, they don’t see inflation much reducing.

And there was this. Despite the evidence and warnings of military commanders, President Biden assured us the withdrawal from Afghanistan would go well.

But, even after the dark debacle of Afghanistan, President Biden still could have begun his exit gracefully after the 2022 mid-term elections, in which Democrats did far better than expected because voters once again rejected congressional and gubernatorial candidates advanced by Trump.

Americans could still have loved the old man visibly failing before our eyes for, mistakes notwithstanding, all he had given, even nobly given, to the nation — if only he had the capacity to recognize his own mortality and been willing to pass the torch to the next generation.

Instead of our getting our veneration, Biden’s approval ratings plummeted. He was seen as both stumbling and stubborn. Finally, after the disastrous debate with Trump, the Democratic Party stirred itself from delusion, and, though probably by then too late to win the election, leveraged Biden into withdrawing from the presidential campaign.

Vice President Harris

I do not blame Kamala Harris. Biden dealt her a bad hand. She deserved the opportunity to hone her own campaign and her own campaign message during the winning, or the losing, of the Democratic nomination in a primary process — an opportunity which Biden foreclosed to her and to anyone not named Dean Phillips (God bless him for, thanklessly as it turns out, describing the emperor’s wardrobe for what it was).

She ran a gallant campaign on short notice. She did her best to expand her national appeal — even if that meant awkwardly walking back previous policy positions. Her position on reproductive rights remained clear. She expressed support for the Second Amendment. She never referred to the necessity of breaking a glass ceiling. Her backdrops were adorned with patriotic emblems.

She suffered from speaking like a college president to an electorate much of which preferred vulgarity. I wish she had been more ruthless in differentiating herself from Biden. She was loyal to him. I think it is reasonable to accept that she spoke sincerely when she said, and repeatedly said, that she wouldn’t have done things otherwise from him. After all, it is fair to observe, Dean Phillips didn’t disagree with Biden on policy either.

She has been disparaged for underperforming in comparison with Joe Biden’s vote percentages in 2020. The criticism doesn’t stand up. Joe Biden in 2024 would have considerably underperformed his 2020 numbers. So much so that he would have taken a lot of down-ballot Democrats down with him. No, by keeping presidential election as close as it was, she kept the Democratic Party alive for the next election.

More than that, in contrast with the last two presidential election cycles, she is re-establishing the norm of what it like to lose graciously and with dignity — however great the personal heartbreak. But her personal ordeal is not over. All eyes will be on her January 6 when she is in the Vice- Presidential chair overseeing the counting of the Electoral College vote. Americans, prepare to see a living example of putting country over self.

What next, Democrats?

I agree with the Democrat who said that, if assigned a 500-word essay to explain what went wrong for them in the election, he would write the word “inflation” 500 times. People do not like getting lectured about a thriving macro economy when it feels like they personally had done better economically when Trump was in charge.

I even (reluctantly) agree with socialist curmudgeon Bernie Sanders in the observation: “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.”

But it is not just that. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres hit a nail squarely on the head when he posted on the day after the election:

“Donald Trump has no greater friend than the far left, which has managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Jews from the Democratic Party with absurdities like “Defund the Police” or “From the River to the Sea” or “Latin-X.”

"There is more to lose than there is to gain politically from pandering to a far left that is more representative of Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok than it is of the real world. The working class is not buying the ivory-tower nonsense the far left is selling.”

Identity politics is not proving a winning strategy. If Democrats truly care about winning elections, they have an ugly identity crisis ahead of them.

What next, Nation?

So, what will we get this time with Trump?

We’ll get January 6 rioters pardoned. Jack Smith will leave government service. The felony conviction in New York will be dismissed as a first-time nonviolent offense.

Prices won’t go back to what they were in 2020. The rich will get richer. Housing will remain too expensive.

Presidential executive actions will continue to be challenged in federal court — only more so.

Large federal budget deficits will continue — as the federal deficit continues to burgeon.

There will be better border security and immigration law enforcement. There will be no deportation of millions of immigrants.

“Obamacare” will stay.

Even if inflation continues to return toward 2% annually and unemployment remains low, the Federal Reserve will get blamed for something at every turn.

More “fake news” than ever.

Fair-minded Americans will yearn for a Justice Department headed by someone as circumspect as Bill Barr or Merrick Garland.

Our overseas allies won’t know what to make of us.

If the Department of Education is ended, no one will notice.

Congress will not outlaw abortion. The issue will remain with the states.

If tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods, they won’t last long.

Restaurant servers will continue to prefer tips in cash.

Congress, even with Republican majorities in both houses, will remain dysfunctional.

The Supreme Court won’t be as pliable as many assume.

The deep state will make sure the buck never stops in the Oval Office.